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Nour El Sherbini v Amanda Sobhy (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 10-12,11-3,4-11,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,098, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Amanda Sobhy: 10,656, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing 23% better than Amanda Sobhy.

Nour El Sherbini won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played 11% better than Amanda Sobhy in this match.

As Nour El Sherbini has played below her allowed range at 12,284, her level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Nour El Sherbini would normally have been playing at level 12,918 (based on typical behaviour), Amanda Sobhy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to -3.3% and Amanda Sobhy changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes -1.5% and for Amanda Sobhy becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 82%, Amanda Sobhy: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 78%, Amanda Sobhy: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 12,828, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Amanda Sobhy: 10,813, level confidence: 86%.