Nour El Sherbini v Lily Taylor (Mon 25 Feb 2019)
Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-9.
Starting level for
Nour El Sherbini:
13,158, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Lily Taylor:
6,736, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing
95% better than Lily Taylor.
Nour El Sherbini won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played
52% better than Lily Taylor in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nour El Sherbini was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 10,288 and 13,158 without affecting her level.
As Nour El Sherbini has played below her allowed range at 10,252, her level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that Nour El Sherbini would normally have been playing at level 11,635 (based on typical behaviour), Lily Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to 0% and Lily Taylor changes to +4.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes -0.1% and for Lily Taylor becomes +2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 81%, Lily Taylor: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 71%, Lily Taylor: 74%.
A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nour El Sherbini:
12,903, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Lily Taylor:
6,917, level confidence: 74%.