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Daniel Bergin v Ben Bickers (Thu 28 Feb 2019)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 8-11,11-7,11-8,4-11,11-9.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,265, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Bickers: 5,174, level confidence: 62%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Ben Bickers.

Daniel Bergin won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 7% better than Ben Bickers in this match.

As Daniel Bergin has played below his allowed range at 5,811, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Daniel Bergin would normally have been playing at level 6,192 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Bickers played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to -3.6% and Ben Bickers changes to +5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes -1.8% and for Ben Bickers becomes +2.4%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.2% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ben Bickers's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is -1.3% and for Ben Bickers is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 89%, Ben Bickers: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 83%, Ben Bickers: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,175, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Ben Bickers: 5,258, level confidence: 74%.