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Baptiste Masotti v Arthur Moneau (Wed 13 Feb 2019)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-5,11-0,12-14,11-4.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 36,087, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arthur Moneau: 11,191, level confidence: 10%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 222% better than Arthur Moneau.

Baptiste Masotti won 75% of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 48% better than Arthur Moneau in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Baptiste Masotti was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,320 and 36,087 without affecting his level.

As Baptiste Masotti has played below his allowed range at 17,907, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Baptiste Masotti would normally have been playing at level 26,404 (based on typical behaviour), Arthur Moneau played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to -0.6% and Arthur Moneau changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes -0.2% and for Arthur Moneau becomes +4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 85%, Arthur Moneau: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 58%, Arthur Moneau: 21%.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 36,006, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Arthur Moneau: 11,633, level confidence: 21%.