Baptiste Masotti v Jaymie Haycocks (Thu 07 Feb 2019)
Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-13,11-3,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
34,995, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
27,903, level confidence: 62%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Jaymie Haycocks.
Baptiste Masotti won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played
32% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of
35,922 and Jaymie Haycocks at a level of
27,183. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +2.3% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to -2.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +0.9% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carter Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 79%, Jaymie Haycocks: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 77%, Jaymie Haycocks: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
35,126, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
27,848, level confidence: 77%.