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Jaymie Haycocks v Cory McCartney (Mon 04 Feb 2019)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 26,370, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Cory McCartney: 5,634, level confidence: 58%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 368% better than Cory McCartney.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 52% better than Cory McCartney in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jaymie Haycocks was taking it easy by anything up to 40%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,505 and 26,370 without affecting his level.

As Jaymie Haycocks has played below his allowed range at 9,012, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 15,832 (based on typical behaviour), Cory McCartney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 36%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to -2.3% and Cory McCartney changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -1% and for Cory McCartney becomes +5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carter Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 79%, Cory McCartney: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 45%, Cory McCartney: 44%.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 26,122, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Cory McCartney: 5,918, level confidence: 44%.