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Nour El Sherbini v Raneem El Welily (Thu 24 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 12,694, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 13,144, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 4% better than Nour El Sherbini.

Nour El Sherbini won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played 40% better than Raneem El Welily in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Sherbini actually played at a level of 15,261 and Raneem El Welily at a level of 10,933. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to +19% and Raneem El Welily changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes +4.9% and for Raneem El Welily becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Raneem El Welily is limited to -4.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 91%, Raneem El Welily: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 75%, Raneem El Welily: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,174, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Raneem El Welily: 12,604, level confidence: 74%.