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Nour El Sherbini v Nour El Tayeb (Wed 23 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 13-11,9-11,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 12,484, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nour El Tayeb: 11,405, level confidence: 57%.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing 9% better than Nour El Tayeb.

Nour El Sherbini won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played 25% better than Nour El Tayeb in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Sherbini actually played at a level of 13,353 and Nour El Tayeb at a level of 10,663. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to +4.8% and Nour El Tayeb changes to -6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes +1.9% and for Nour El Tayeb becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 88%, Nour El Tayeb: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 83%, Nour El Tayeb: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 12,631, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nour El Tayeb: 11,203, level confidence: 71%.