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Nour El Sherbini v Hania El Hammamy (Sun 20 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 11-7,11-4,6-11,11-7.

Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 12,223, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Hania El Hammamy: 9,143, level confidence: 50%.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing 34% better than Hania El Hammamy.

Nour El Sherbini won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played 28% better than Hania El Hammamy in this match.

In this case, Nour El Sherbini played at level 11,804 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nour El Sherbini would normally have been playing at level 11,894 (based on typical behaviour), Hania El Hammamy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to 0% and Hania El Hammamy changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes 0% and for Hania El Hammamy becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 77%, Hania El Hammamy: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 76%, Hania El Hammamy: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 12,090, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Hania El Hammamy: 9,269, level confidence: 69%.