Greg Lobban v Arturo Salazar (Sat 19 Jan 2019)
Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-3,11-7,9-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
38,048, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
36,778, level confidence: 58%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Arturo Salazar.
Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played
37% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of
43,794 and Arturo Salazar at a level of
31,953. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +15% and Arturo Salazar changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +3.3% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 76%, Arturo Salazar: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 66%, Arturo Salazar: 66%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
39,184, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
35,768, level confidence: 66%.