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Harry Falconer v Emyr Evans (Tue 15 Jan 2019)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 8-11,8-11,11-13.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,750, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 22,950, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Harry Falconer.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 38% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 24,369 and Harry Falconer at a level of 17,658. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +5.1% and Harry Falconer changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +1.7% and for Harry Falconer becomes -1.9%.

Given Emyr Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Emyr Evans is +0.9% and for Harry Falconer is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 91%, Harry Falconer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 85%, Harry Falconer: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 18,533, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,117, level confidence: 85%.