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Ramit Tandon v Jaymie Haycocks (Thu 13 Dec 2018)

Match won by Ramit Tandon. Result: 9-11,14-12,11-6,4-11,11-5.

Starting level for Ramit Tandon: 32,708, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 26,118, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Ramit Tandon to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Jaymie Haycocks.

Ramit Tandon won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramit Tandon played 10% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.

As Ramit Tandon has played below his allowed range at 30,109, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Ramit Tandon would normally have been playing at level 32,167 (based on typical behaviour), Jaymie Haycocks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramit Tandon changes to -4.5% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramit Tandon becomes -1.5% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramit Tandon: 85%, Jaymie Haycocks: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramit Tandon: 79%, Jaymie Haycocks: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ramit Tandon: 32,265, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 26,590, level confidence: 88%.