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Daniel Bergin v Ben Pinfold (Thu 13 Dec 2018)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-1.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,355, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Pinfold: 3,272, level confidence: 34%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Ben Pinfold.

Daniel Bergin won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 154% better than Ben Pinfold in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Bergin actually played at a level of 7,265 and Ben Pinfold at a level of 2,862. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to +4.7% and Ben Pinfold changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes +2.1% and for Ben Pinfold becomes -4.3%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is +1.5% and for Ben Pinfold is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 85%, Ben Pinfold: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 74%, Ben Pinfold: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,441, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Ben Pinfold: 3,167, level confidence: 51%.