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Ricky Davies v Ben Bickers (Thu 13 Dec 2018)

Match won by Ricky Davies. Result: 11-4,7-11,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Ricky Davies: 12,909, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Ben Bickers: 5,185, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Ricky Davies to win as he is currently playing 149% better than Ben Bickers.

Ricky Davies won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ricky Davies played 35% better than Ben Bickers in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ricky Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,142 and 12,909 without affecting his level.

As Ricky Davies has played below his allowed range at 7,536, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that Ricky Davies would normally have been playing at level 10,518 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Bickers played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ricky Davies changes to -5% and Ben Bickers changes to +11.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ricky Davies becomes -1.9% and for Ben Bickers becomes +4%.

Given Ricky Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Ben Bickers's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Ricky Davies is -1.1% and for Ben Bickers is +3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ricky Davies: 81%, Ben Bickers: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ricky Davies: 59%, Ben Bickers: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ricky Davies: 12,745, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Ben Bickers: 5,331, level confidence: 66%.