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Nick Wall v Emyr Evans (Fri 07 Dec 2018)

Match won by Nick Wall. Result: 11-6,8-11,5-11,11-7,14-12.

Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,457, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,646, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Nick Wall.

Nick Wall won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Wall played 9% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Wall actually played at a level of 24,539 and Emyr Evans at a level of 22,603. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Wall changes to +4.6% and Emyr Evans changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Wall becomes +1.6% and for Emyr Evans becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Wall: 80%, Emyr Evans: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Wall: 77%, Emyr Evans: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Wall: 23,806, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,346, level confidence: 87%.