SquashLevels calculations
Arturo Salazar v Tang Ming Hong (Fri 07 Dec 2018)
Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-5.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
37,315, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Tang Ming Hong:
18,741, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing
99% better than Tang Ming Hong.
Arturo Salazar won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played
94% better than Tang Ming Hong in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Arturo Salazar was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 28,772 and 37,315 without affecting his level.
In this case, Arturo Salazar played at level 36,380 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Tang Ming Hong is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 77%, Tang Ming Hong: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 76%, Tang Ming Hong: 87%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
37,315, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tang Ming Hong:
18,741, level confidence: 87%.