Emyr Evans v Mike Harris (Thu 06 Dec 2018)
Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-7,11-7,4-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Emyr Evans:
23,333, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
19,455, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Mike Harris.
Emyr Evans won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played
26% better than Mike Harris in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of
23,902 and Mike Harris at a level of
18,992. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +2.2% and Mike Harris changes to -1.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +0.9% and for Mike Harris becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 85%, Mike Harris: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 83%, Mike Harris: 92%.
Final level for Emyr Evans:
23,551, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mike Harris:
19,306, level confidence: 92%.