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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Eain Yow Ng (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 68,779, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 36,745, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 65% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mohamed Elshorbagy was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 55,378 and 68,779 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mohamed Elshorbagy played at level 61,170 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 61,716 (based on typical behaviour), Eain Yow Ng played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to 0% and Eain Yow Ng changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes 0% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 81%, Eain Yow Ng: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 76%, Eain Yow Ng: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 68,802, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 37,162, level confidence: 79%.