Jaymie Haycocks v Nick Mulvey (Wed 05 Dec 2018)
Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 10-12,11-6,11-8,11-4.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
24,844, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Mulvey:
16,680, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing
49% better than Nick Mulvey.
Jaymie Haycocks won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played
31% better than Nick Mulvey in this match.
As Jaymie Haycocks has played below his allowed range at 22,213, his level reduction is 1.6% before damping. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 23,681 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Mulvey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 3.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to -1.3% and Nick Mulvey changes to +3.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -0.6% and for Nick Mulvey becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 87%, Nick Mulvey: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 81%, Nick Mulvey: 83%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
24,708, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Nick Mulvey:
16,911, level confidence: 83%.