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Tom Richards v Shady El Sherbiny (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-8,11-6,13-11.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 42,373, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shady El Sherbiny: 6,160, level confidence: 14%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 588% better than Shady El Sherbiny.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 45% better than Shady El Sherbiny in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Richards was taking it easy by anything up to 51%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,267 and 42,373 without affecting his level.

As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 9,575, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 20,858 (based on typical behaviour), Shady El Sherbiny played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 53%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -0.5% and Shady El Sherbiny changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -0.2% and for Shady El Sherbiny becomes +5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 91%, Shady El Sherbiny: 38%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 42%, Shady El Sherbiny: 17%.

Final level for Tom Richards: 42,300, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Shady El Sherbiny: 6,498, level confidence: 17%.