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Mike Dickens v Daniel Bergin (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mike Dickens. Result: 6-11,8-11,11-4,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Mike Dickens: 5,633, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,524, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Mike Dickens.

Mike Dickens won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Dickens played 15% better than Daniel Bergin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Dickens actually played at a level of 6,505 and Daniel Bergin at a level of 5,650. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Dickens changes to +12% and Daniel Bergin changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Dickens becomes +4.2% and for Daniel Bergin becomes -4.6%.

Given Mike Dickens's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Mike Dickens is +3.1% and for Daniel Bergin is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Dickens: 93%, Daniel Bergin: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Dickens: 80%, Daniel Bergin: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Dickens: 5,797, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,310, level confidence: 74%.