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Diego Elias v Arturo Salazar (Sat 01 Dec 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-9,11-4,11-1.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 52,514, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 38,905, level confidence: 63%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Arturo Salazar.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 136% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of 69,396 and Arturo Salazar at a level of 29,441. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +27% and Arturo Salazar changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +5.1% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 79%, Arturo Salazar: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 60%, Arturo Salazar: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 54,726, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar: 37,315, level confidence: 60%.