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Matthew Crowley v Stephen Hearst (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Stephen Hearst. Result: 6-11,7-11,14-12,6-11.

Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,725, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Stephen Hearst: 5,684, level confidence: 52%.
Matthew Crowley to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Stephen Hearst.

Stephen Hearst won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Hearst played 29% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Hearst actually played at a level of 6,473 and Matthew Crowley at a level of 5,027. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Hearst changes to +14% and Matthew Crowley changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Hearst becomes +4.6% and for Matthew Crowley becomes -3.6%.

Given Stephen Hearst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Crowley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Stephen Hearst is +3.4% and for Matthew Crowley is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Hearst: 72%, Matthew Crowley: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Hearst: 63%, Matthew Crowley: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,570, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Stephen Hearst: 5,867, level confidence: 63%.