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Eain Yow Ng v Ben Coleman (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 32,965, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 31,483, level confidence: 62%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Ben Coleman.

Eain Yow Ng won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 120% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eain Yow Ng actually played at a level of 47,783 and Ben Coleman at a level of 21,720. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to +34% and Ben Coleman changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes +6.7% and for Ben Coleman becomes -8.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Eain Yow Ng is limited to +5.6% and Ben Coleman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 88%, Ben Coleman: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 61%, Ben Coleman: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 34,859, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 30,030, level confidence: 54%.