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Tom Richards v Mostafa Asal (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-9.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 39,949, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 30,873, level confidence: 64%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Mostafa Asal.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 120% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 52,090 and Mostafa Asal at a level of 23,677. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +26% and Mostafa Asal changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +5.2% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 69%, Mostafa Asal: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 53%, Mostafa Asal: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 41,707, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal: 29,903, level confidence: 61%.