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Phil Nightingale v Jaymie Haycocks (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 5-11,10-12,6-11.

Starting level for Phil Nightingale: 10,055, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 23,089, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Phil Nightingale.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 62% better than Phil Nightingale in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jaymie Haycocks was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,531 and 23,089 without affecting his level.

In this case, Jaymie Haycocks played at level 17,752 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 19,359 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Nightingale played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to 0% and Phil Nightingale changes to +5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes 0% and for Phil Nightingale becomes +2.2%.

Given Phil Nightingale's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks is 0% and for Phil Nightingale is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 88%, Phil Nightingale: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 74%, Phil Nightingale: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Nightingale: 10,221, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 23,147, level confidence: 74%.