Bernat Jaume v Jaymie Haycocks (Sat 17 Nov 2018)
Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-9.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
26,886, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
23,683, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Jaymie Haycocks.
Bernat Jaume won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played
47% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bernat Jaume actually played at a level of
30,623 and Jaymie Haycocks at a level of
20,793. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume changes to +12% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume becomes +3% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Romanian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 92%, Jaymie Haycocks: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 81%, Jaymie Haycocks: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
27,616, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
23,088, level confidence: 78%.