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Tom Richards v Aaron Allpress (Wed 14 Nov 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 9-11,12-10,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 40,716, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Aaron Allpress: 9,285, level confidence: 60%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 339% better than Aaron Allpress.

Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 22% better than Aaron Allpress in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Richards was taking it easy by anything up to 38%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,064 and 40,716 without affecting his level.

As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 12,620, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 25,386 (based on typical behaviour), Aaron Allpress played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 50%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -3.7% and Aaron Allpress changes to +21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -1.3% and for Aaron Allpress becomes +5.8%.

Given Tom Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Aaron Allpress's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Tom Richards is -0.6% and for Aaron Allpress is +3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 91%, Aaron Allpress: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 48%, Aaron Allpress: 41%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 40,427, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Aaron Allpress: 9,623, level confidence: 41%.