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Daniel Bergin v Ian Fenner-Evans (Thu 15 Nov 2018)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,182, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ian Fenner-Evans: 4,830, level confidence: 66%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Ian Fenner-Evans.

Daniel Bergin won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 136% better than Ian Fenner-Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Bergin actually played at a level of 8,389 and Ian Fenner-Evans at a level of 3,559. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to +29% and Ian Fenner-Evans changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes +8.2% and for Ian Fenner-Evans becomes -9.3%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is +5.9% and for Ian Fenner-Evans is -6.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Fenner-Evans is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 85%, Ian Fenner-Evans: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 62%, Ian Fenner-Evans: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,535, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Ian Fenner-Evans: 4,593, level confidence: 60%.