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Ricky Davies v Matthew Crowley (Thu 15 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ricky Davies. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-3.

Starting level for Ricky Davies: 12,580, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,952, level confidence: 65%.
Ricky Davies to win as he is currently playing 111% better than Matthew Crowley.

Ricky Davies won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ricky Davies played 371% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ricky Davies actually played at a level of 18,788 and Matthew Crowley at a level of 3,985. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ricky Davies changes to +30% and Matthew Crowley changes to -32%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ricky Davies becomes +7.3% and for Matthew Crowley becomes -9%.

Given Ricky Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Crowley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Ricky Davies is +4.4% and for Matthew Crowley is -6.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matthew Crowley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ricky Davies: 82%, Matthew Crowley: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ricky Davies: 55%, Matthew Crowley: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ricky Davies: 13,115, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,660, level confidence: 54%.