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Emyr Evans v James Peach (Thu 15 Nov 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-6,8-11,11-5.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,296, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Peach: 15,886, level confidence: 41%.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 47% better than James Peach.

Emyr Evans won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 12% better than James Peach in this match.

As Emyr Evans has played below his allowed range at 19,349, his level reduction is 8.9% before damping. On the assumption that Emyr Evans would normally have been playing at level 22,277 (based on typical behaviour), James Peach played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to -3.5% and James Peach changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes -1.4% and for James Peach becomes +2.8%.

Given Emyr Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Emyr Evans is -0.7% and for James Peach is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 90%, James Peach: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 79%, James Peach: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,097, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for James Peach: 16,119, level confidence: 56%.