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Emyr Evans v Millie Tomlinson (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-6,11-1,11-6.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,375, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Millie Tomlinson: 9,487, level confidence: 49%.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 146% better than Millie Tomlinson.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 154% better than Millie Tomlinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 23,726 and Millie Tomlinson at a level of 9,347. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +0.7% and Millie Tomlinson changes to -1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +0.3% and for Millie Tomlinson becomes -0.5%.

Given Emyr Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Given Millie Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Emyr Evans is 0% and for Millie Tomlinson is -0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 83%, Millie Tomlinson: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 82%, Millie Tomlinson: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,375, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Millie Tomlinson: 9,443, level confidence: 69%.