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Ahmed Hosny v Emyr Evans (Wed 07 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ahmed Hosny. Result: 10-12,11-5,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Ahmed Hosny: 18,667, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 24,340, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Ahmed Hosny.

Ahmed Hosny won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ahmed Hosny played 33% better than Emyr Evans in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ahmed Hosny actually played at a level of 24,553 and Emyr Evans at a level of 18,505. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ahmed Hosny changes to +27% and Emyr Evans changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ahmed Hosny becomes +6.1% and for Emyr Evans becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kolkata International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ahmed Hosny: 79%, Emyr Evans: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ahmed Hosny: 60%, Emyr Evans: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ahmed Hosny: 19,808, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,336, level confidence: 70%.