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Greg Tippings v Ricky Davies (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Greg Tippings. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Greg Tippings: 12,137, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ricky Davies: 13,039, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Ricky Davies to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Greg Tippings.

Greg Tippings won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Tippings played 56% better than Ricky Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Tippings actually played at a level of 15,734 and Ricky Davies at a level of 10,058. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Tippings changes to +28% and Ricky Davies changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Tippings becomes +6.9% and for Ricky Davies becomes -6%.

Given Greg Tippings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ricky Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Greg Tippings is +4.2% and for Ricky Davies is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Tippings: 84%, Ricky Davies: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Tippings: 65%, Ricky Davies: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Tippings: 12,634, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ricky Davies: 12,580, level confidence: 70%.