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Matthew Clements v Daniel Bergin (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 8-11,10-12,5-11.

Starting level for Matthew Clements: 3,259, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,230, level confidence: 69%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Matthew Clements.

Daniel Bergin won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 50% better than Matthew Clements in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daniel Bergin was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,805 and 6,230 without affecting his level.

In this case, Daniel Bergin played at level 5,213 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daniel Bergin would normally have been playing at level 5,551 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Clements played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to 0% and Matthew Clements changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes 0% and for Matthew Clements becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is 0% and for Matthew Clements is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 83%, Matthew Clements: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 74%, Matthew Clements: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Clements: 3,311, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,221, level confidence: 74%.