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Matthew Crowley v Jethro D Binns (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Jethro D Binns. Result: 11-4,1-11,2-11,11-9,6-11.

Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,793, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jethro D Binns: 9,971, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Jethro D Binns to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Matthew Crowley.

Jethro D Binns won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jethro D Binns played 20% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.

As Jethro D Binns has played below his allowed range at 7,571, his level reduction is 9.3% before damping. On the assumption that Jethro D Binns would normally have been playing at level 9,177 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Crowley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jethro D Binns changes to -6.1% and Matthew Crowley changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jethro D Binns becomes -2.3% and for Matthew Crowley becomes +4%.

Given Jethro D Binns's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Crowley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Jethro D Binns is -1.4% and for Matthew Crowley is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jethro D Binns: 85%, Matthew Crowley: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jethro D Binns: 71%, Matthew Crowley: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,950, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Jethro D Binns: 9,815, level confidence: 71%.