Adrian Waller v Tom Richards (Wed 07 Nov 2018)
Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 3-11,6-11,11-6,11-6,9-11.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
38,579, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
40,236, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Adrian Waller.
Tom Richards won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played
11% better than Adrian Waller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of
41,439 and Adrian Waller at a level of
37,459. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +2.7% and Adrian Waller changes to -2.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +1% and for Adrian Waller becomes -1.1%.
Given Tom Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 68% has been applied to his level change.
Given Adrian Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Tom Richards is +0.4% and for Adrian Waller is -0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 88%, Adrian Waller: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 86%, Adrian Waller: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
38,341, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Tom Richards:
40,369, level confidence: 86%.