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Josh Davies v Matthew Birch (Tue 06 Nov 2018)

Match won by Matthew Birch. Result: 11-15,17-15,10-15,8-15.

Starting level for Josh Davies: 1,628, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Matthew Birch: 2,174, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Matthew Birch to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Josh Davies.

Matthew Birch won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Birch played 27% better than Josh Davies in this match.

In this case, Matthew Birch played at level 2,090 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Matthew Birch would normally have been playing at level 2,116 (based on typical behaviour), Josh Davies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Birch changes to 0% and Josh Davies changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Birch becomes 0% and for Josh Davies becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mid Glamorgan Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Matthew Birch is 0% and for Josh Davies is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Birch: 90%, Josh Davies: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Birch: 87%, Josh Davies: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Josh Davies: 1,636, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Matthew Birch: 2,171, level confidence: 87%.