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Seigo Masuda v Jaymie Haycocks (Wed 07 Nov 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 4-11,0-11,9-11.

Starting level for Seigo Masuda: 10,068, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,399, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Seigo Masuda.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 154% better than Seigo Masuda in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of 23,926 and Seigo Masuda at a level of 9,425. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +2.8% and Seigo Masuda changes to -4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +1.2% and for Seigo Masuda becomes -1.9%.

Given Jaymie Haycocks's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Given Seigo Masuda's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks is +0.6% and for Seigo Masuda is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 93%, Seigo Masuda: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 87%, Seigo Masuda: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Seigo Masuda: 9,938, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,515, level confidence: 87%.