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Jaymie Haycocks v Lewis Walters (Tue 06 Nov 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-2,11-9,10-12,11-5.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,216, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Walters: 18,250, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Lewis Walters.

Jaymie Haycocks won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 34% better than Lewis Walters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of 23,346 and Lewis Walters at a level of 17,367. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +4.2% and Lewis Walters changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +1.5% and for Lewis Walters becomes -1.7%.

Given Jaymie Haycocks's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Walters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks is +0.8% and for Lewis Walters is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 91%, Lewis Walters: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 87%, Lewis Walters: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,448, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Lewis Walters: 18,129, level confidence: 83%.