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Dan West v Jaymie Haycocks (Fri 02 Nov 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 10-12,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Dan West: 12,437, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,199, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Dan West.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 50% better than Dan West in this match.

In this case, Jaymie Haycocks played at level 19,434 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 20,218 (based on typical behaviour), Dan West played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to 0% and Dan West changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes 0% and for Dan West becomes +1.4%.

Given Dan West's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks is 0% and for Dan West is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 89%, Dan West: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 82%, Dan West: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan West: 12,576, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,255, level confidence: 82%.