Tom Richards v Ryan Cuskelly (Mon 29 Oct 2018)
Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 5-11,11-7,11-5,11-7.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
37,475, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ryan Cuskelly:
50,467, level confidence: 57%.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Tom Richards.
Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played
26% better than Ryan Cuskelly in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of
48,728 and Ryan Cuskelly at a level of
38,812. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +18% and Ryan Cuskelly changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +3.9% and for Ryan Cuskelly becomes -4.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 89%, Ryan Cuskelly: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 68%, Ryan Cuskelly: 58%.
A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tom Richards:
38,902, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly:
49,378, level confidence: 58%.