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Tom Richards v Mohamed Reda (Sun 28 Oct 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 9-11,11-9,11-7,9-11,11-6.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,175, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Reda: 28,649, level confidence: 65%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Mohamed Reda.

Tom Richards won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 11% better than Mohamed Reda in this match.

As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 33,995, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 37,167 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Reda played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -4.8% and Mohamed Reda changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -1.5% and for Mohamed Reda becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 86%, Mohamed Reda: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 79%, Mohamed Reda: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 37,625, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mohamed Reda: 29,289, level confidence: 74%.