Raphael Kandra v Arturo Salazar (Sun 28 Oct 2018)
Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 9-11,11-8,11-4,7-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
42,312, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
37,888, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Arturo Salazar.
Raphael Kandra won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played
16% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of
43,050 and Arturo Salazar at a level of
37,238. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +1.6% and Arturo Salazar changes to -1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +0.6% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -0.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 85%, Arturo Salazar: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 83%, Arturo Salazar: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
42,514, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
37,852, level confidence: 83%.