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Ricky Davies v Jethro D Binns (Thu 01 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ricky Davies. Result: 11-8,5-11,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Ricky Davies: 13,199, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jethro D Binns: 9,992, level confidence: 61%.
Ricky Davies to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Jethro D Binns.

Ricky Davies won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ricky Davies played 22% better than Jethro D Binns in this match.

As Ricky Davies has played below his allowed range at 12,316, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Ricky Davies would normally have been playing at level 12,870 (based on typical behaviour), Jethro D Binns played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ricky Davies changes to -0.9% and Jethro D Binns changes to +2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ricky Davies becomes -0.4% and for Jethro D Binns becomes +1.2%.

Given Ricky Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jethro D Binns's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Ricky Davies is 0% and for Jethro D Binns is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ricky Davies: 87%, Jethro D Binns: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ricky Davies: 84%, Jethro D Binns: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ricky Davies: 13,147, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Jethro D Binns: 10,056, level confidence: 75%.