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Daniel Bergin v Ellis Lawrence (Thu 01 Nov 2018)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,198, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Ellis Lawrence: 4,125, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Ellis Lawrence.

Daniel Bergin won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 41% better than Ellis Lawrence in this match.

In this case, Daniel Bergin played at level 5,859 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daniel Bergin would normally have been playing at level 5,897 (based on typical behaviour), Ellis Lawrence played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to 0% and Ellis Lawrence changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes 0% and for Ellis Lawrence becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is 0% and for Ellis Lawrence is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 73%, Ellis Lawrence: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 71%, Ellis Lawrence: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,189, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ellis Lawrence: 4,126, level confidence: 83%.