Zac Alexander v Leandro Romiglio (Wed 24 Oct 2018)
Match won by Zac Alexander. Result: 11-4,11-7,9-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Zac Alexander:
29,701, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for
Leandro Romiglio:
19,912, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Zac Alexander to win as he is currently playing
49% better than Leandro Romiglio.
Zac Alexander won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zac Alexander played
28% better than Leandro Romiglio in this match.
As Zac Alexander has played below his allowed range at 26,227, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Zac Alexander would normally have been playing at level 28,302 (based on typical behaviour), Leandro Romiglio played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 4.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zac Alexander changes to -2.3% and Leandro Romiglio changes to +1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zac Alexander becomes -0.9% and for Leandro Romiglio becomes +0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Boston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zac Alexander: 56%, Leandro Romiglio: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zac Alexander: 52%, Leandro Romiglio: 78%.
Final level for Zac Alexander:
29,428, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Leandro Romiglio:
20,076, level confidence: 78%.