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James Wright v Jaymie Haycocks (Tue 23 Oct 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 7-11,11-9,5-11,9-11.

Starting level for James Wright: 14,228, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,989, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 62% better than James Wright.

Jaymie Haycocks won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 27% better than James Wright in this match.

As Jaymie Haycocks has played below his allowed range at 18,917, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 21,510 (based on typical behaviour), James Wright played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to -2.7% and James Wright changes to +7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -1.1% and for James Wright becomes +2.3%.

Given Jaymie Haycocks's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Wright's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks is -0.6% and for James Wright is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 94%, James Wright: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 83%, James Wright: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Wright: 14,456, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,913, level confidence: 83%.