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Emyr Evans v Elliot Morris Devred (Tue 23 Oct 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-4,12-10,11-6.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,855, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliot Morris Devred: 19,398, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Elliot Morris Devred.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 70% better than Elliot Morris Devred in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 28,047 and Elliot Morris Devred at a level of 16,498. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +14% and Elliot Morris Devred changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +3.5% and for Elliot Morris Devred becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Newport Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 88%, Elliot Morris Devred: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 75%, Elliot Morris Devred: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 24,653, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Elliot Morris Devred: 18,636, level confidence: 71%.