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Emyr Evans v Liam Eason (Tue 23 Oct 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,784, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Liam Eason: 10,208, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 133% better than Liam Eason.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 120% better than Liam Eason in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Emyr Evans was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,553 and 23,784 without affecting his level.

In this case, Emyr Evans played at level 22,458 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Liam Eason is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 79%, Liam Eason: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 77%, Liam Eason: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,748, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Liam Eason: 10,193, level confidence: 86%.